Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Norwich vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Norwich
Norwich
Preview
18:45
Birmingham
Birmingham
9/9/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 6Carrow Road
Big match
45%
Norwich
model favours
45%26%29%

Birmingham have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Norwich45%
×Draw26%
Birmingham29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norwich
1.45
Birmingham
1.12

Norwich creates 29% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 32 away

creates per match

Norwich
1.52
Birmingham
0.95

allows per match

Norwich
1.29
Birmingham
1.37

finishing

Norwich+0.18scores more
Birmingham-0.20scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Norwich or draw
71%
Norwich or Birmingham
74%
Draw or Birmingham
55%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+
22%
Birmingham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals
77%
Norwich 2+ goals
42%
Norwich 3+ goals
18%
Birmingham 1+ goals
67%
Birmingham 2+ goals
31%
Birmingham 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)
60%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.29 · 54 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.37 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.52 + Birmingham defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.45

Birmingham attack 0.95 + Norwich defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Norwich scores more
45%
level
26%
Birmingham scores more
29%

Norwich at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Birmingham are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Birmingham have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Norwich
Balanced
Birmingham
Balanced
55%PossessionBiggest gap47%
82%Pass accuracy72%
12.4Shots12.4
1.35xG1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
NorwichBirmingham

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

6
Norwich
1
Draws
3
Birmingham
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 70%
1–21–40–12–03–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Norwich
DWDWL
Birmingham
WWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Norwich vs Birmingham — Match Preview

Norwich face Birmingham on September 9, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Norwich host Birmingham at Carrow Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.