Norwich 1–0 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Birmingham

M. Vrančić 87'

10/20/2020

Championship · Round 6Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Norwich45%

×Draw26%

Birmingham29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.10

Norwich

1.45

Birmingham

1.10

Norwich creates 32% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 34 away

1.54

creates per match

0.94

1.26

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Norwich

1.54

Birmingham

0.94

allows per match

Norwich

1.26

Birmingham

1.35

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Norwich+0.19scores more

Birmingham-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

71%

Norwich or Birmingham

74%

Draw or Birmingham

55%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

22%

Birmingham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

77%

Norwich 2+ goals

42%

Norwich 3+ goals

18%

Birmingham 1+ goals

67%

Birmingham 2+ goals

30%

Birmingham 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

61%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 59 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.54 + Birmingham defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.45

Birmingham attack 0.94 + Norwich defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Norwich scores more

45%

level

26%

Birmingham scores more

29%

Norwich at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Xavi Quintillà

Norwich · D

8.0

Match Events

50'

Adam Clayton

54'

Harlee Dean

55'

Jérémie Bela← J. Leko

69'

A. Idah← J. Hugill

80'

M. Vrančić← O. Skipp

85'

P. Płacheta← T. Pukki

86'

86'

87'

88'

89'

90'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichBirmingham

Overview

73%Possession27%

23Total Shots6

6Corners3

10Fouls12

Shots

23Total Shots6

4On Target2

10Off Target3

9Blocked1

14Inside Box2

9Outside Box4

Passing

73%Possession27%

773Total Passes276

698Accurate Passes185

90%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0