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Etzella Ettelbruck vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg — National Division 2012

Etzella Ettelbruck
Etzella Ettelbruck
FT
2 – 2
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
3/6/2013National DivisionNational Division · Round 14Centre Sportif du Deich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Etzella Ettelbruck28%
×Draw24%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg48%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etzella Ettelbruck
1.24
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.68

Racing FC Union Luxembourg creates 35% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 110 away

creates per match

Etzella Ettelbruck
1.12
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.61

allows per match

Etzella Ettelbruck
1.74
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.35

finishing

Etzella Ettelbruck+0.00on par
Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etzella Ettelbruck ↓

Racing FC Union Luxembourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Etzella Ettelbruck or draw
52%
Etzella Ettelbruck or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
76%
Draw or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
72%

Winning margin

Etzella Ettelbruck wins by 2+
12%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Etzella Ettelbruck 1+ goals
71%
Etzella Ettelbruck 2+ goals
35%
Etzella Ettelbruck 3+ goals
13%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals
81%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals
50%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Etzella Ettelbruck (draw refunded)
37%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etzella Ettelbruck at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 66 matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.35 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etzella Ettelbruck attack 1.12 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 1.61 + Etzella Ettelbruck defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Etzella Ettelbruck scores more
28%
level
24%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more
48%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Racing FC Union Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Etzella Ettelbruck vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg

Etzella Ettelbruck and Racing FC Union Luxembourg drew 2-2 in National Division on March 6, 2013.

The match was played at Centre Sportif du Deich.