Leyton Orient 0–3 Notts County: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Notts County

L. Sam 90+7'

J. Hughes 76'

D. Stewart 70'

4/6/2012

League One · Round 41Matchroom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Leyton Orient40%

×Draw27%

Notts County33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchNotts County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.15

Leyton Orient

1.29

Notts County

1.15

Leyton Orient creates 12% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 18 away

1.30

creates per match

1.11

1.18

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.30

Notts County

1.11

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.18

Notts County

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Notts County+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Notts County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

67%

Leyton Orient or Notts County

73%

Draw or Notts County

60%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

18%

Notts County wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

72%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

37%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

14%

Notts County 1+ goals

68%

Notts County 2+ goals

32%

Notts County 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

55%

Notts County (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 79 matches

Notts County away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.30 + Notts County defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Notts County attack 1.11 + Leyton Orient defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

40%

level

27%

Notts County scores more

33%

Leyton Orient at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

G. Mahon← L. Harris

61'

L. Hughes← H. Bencherif

70'

D. Stewart

71'

S. Taiwo← J. Smith

73'

J. Harley← D. Bogdanovic

76'

J. Hughes

78'

G. Porter← D. Cox

90+7'

L. Sam

Leyton

Notts

17

Nelson

35

⚽

24

3

2

32

⚽

Sam

6

▼

Bencherif

11

⚽

Hughes

14

Judge

36

▼

Harris

40

▼

1

26

4

6

16

3

20

▼

Smith

7

▼

8

9

39

71'▲S. Taiwo←▼J. Smith

78'▲G. Porter←▼D. Cox

Leyton Orient substitutes

21Taiwo15Porter2Youssef11Andrew28Rachubka

60'▲G. Mahon←▼L. Harris

61'▲L. Hughes←▼H. Bencherif

73'▲J. Harley←▼D. Bogdanovic

Notts County substitutes

31Mahon9Hughes23Harley4Edwards20Freeman