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Northern Ireland W vs Portugal W — World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe 2027

Northern Ireland W
Northern Ireland W
Preview
13:00
Portugal W
Portugal W
10/7/2026World Cup - Women - Qualification EuropeWorld Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · Semi-finals
Big match
38%
Northern Ireland W
model favours
38%24%38%

Top-of-the-table clash — Northern Ireland W 3 vs Portugal W 1

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Northern Ireland W38%
×Draw24%
Portugal W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern Ireland W
1.50
Portugal W
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Northern Ireland W
1.67
Portugal W
2.00

allows per match

Northern Ireland W
1.00
Portugal W
1.33

finishing

Northern Ireland W+0.00on par
Portugal W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Ireland W ↓

Portugal W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Northern Ireland W or draw
62%
Northern Ireland W or Portugal W
76%
Draw or Portugal W
62%

Winning margin

Northern Ireland W wins by 2+
18%
Portugal W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Northern Ireland W 1+ goals
78%
Northern Ireland W 2+ goals
44%
Northern Ireland W 3+ goals
19%
Portugal W 1+ goals
78%
Portugal W 2+ goals
44%
Portugal W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Northern Ireland W (draw refunded)
50%
Portugal W (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Ireland W at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Portugal W away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Ireland W attack 1.67 + Portugal W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Portugal W attack 2.00 + Northern Ireland W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Northern Ireland W scores more
38%
level
24%
Portugal W scores more
38%

Northern Ireland W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Northern Ireland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Northern Ireland W and Portugal W have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
LLWWL
W
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northern Ireland W face Portugal W (World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe)

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe returns with Northern Ireland W hosting Portugal W. Match starts October 7, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.