Northern Ireland U17 vs Azerbaijan U17

Northern Ireland U17

Preview

14:00

Azerbaijan U17

11/14/2026

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Group Stage - 1

Big match

64%

Northern Ireland U17

model favours

64%20%16%

Top-of-the-table clash — Northern Ireland U17 4 vs Azerbaijan U17 3

brightest fact of this match

2–0

likely score

61%

over 2.5 goals

55%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Northern Ireland U1764%

×Draw20%

Azerbaijan U1716%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northern Ireland U17Expected goals in this matchAzerbaijan U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.98

Northern Ireland U17

2.17

Azerbaijan U17

0.98

Northern Ireland U17 creates 121% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.13

creates per match

0.33

1.63

allows per match

3.22

creates per match

Northern Ireland U17

1.13

Azerbaijan U17

0.33

allows per match

Northern Ireland U17

1.63

Azerbaijan U17

3.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northern Ireland U17+0.00on par

Azerbaijan U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Ireland U17 ↓

Azerbaijan U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Northern Ireland U17 or draw

84%

Northern Ireland U17 or Azerbaijan U17

80%

Draw or Azerbaijan U17

36%

Winning margin

Northern Ireland U17 wins by 2+

41%

Azerbaijan U17 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Northern Ireland U17 1+ goals

89%

Northern Ireland U17 2+ goals

64%

Northern Ireland U17 3+ goals

36%

Azerbaijan U17 1+ goals

62%

Azerbaijan U17 2+ goals

26%

Azerbaijan U17 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Northern Ireland U17 (draw refunded)

80%

Azerbaijan U17 (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Ireland U17 at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Azerbaijan U17 away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Ireland U17 attack 1.13 + Azerbaijan U17 defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.17

Azerbaijan U17 attack 0.33 + Northern Ireland U17 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Northern Ireland U17 scores more

64%

level

20%

Azerbaijan U17 scores more

16%

Northern Ireland U17 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Northern Ireland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Northern Ireland U17 and Azerbaijan U17 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U17

LLLDW

U17

DDDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff