Northampton 2–1 Stockport County: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stockport County

H. Lintott 63'

S. Hoskins 48'

F. Horsfall 12'

9/24/2022

League Two · Round 11Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Northampton37%

×Draw26%

Stockport County37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchStockport County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

Northampton

1.30

Stockport County

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 47 away

1.48

creates per match

1.72

0.89

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Northampton

1.48

Stockport County

1.72

allows per match

Northampton

0.89

Stockport County

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Stockport County+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Stockport County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

63%

Northampton or Stockport County

74%

Draw or Stockport County

63%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

16%

Stockport County wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

73%

Northampton 2+ goals

37%

Northampton 3+ goals

14%

Stockport County 1+ goals

73%

Stockport County 2+ goals

37%

Stockport County 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

50%

Stockport County (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Stockport County away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.13 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Stockport County defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.30

Stockport County attack 1.72 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Northampton scores more

37%

level

26%

Stockport County scores more

37%

Northampton at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Pinnock

Northampton · M

7.6

Match Events

12'

F. Horsfall↳ R. Johnson

37'

39'

40'

46'

46'

K. Bowie← B. Fox

48'

S. Hoskins

63'

H. Lintott↳ M. Pinnock

65'

Danny Hylton

70'

P. Madden← J. Brown

80'

Kyle Wootton

84'

M. Hippolyte← M. Kitching

84'

C. Lemonheigh-Evans← R. Croasdale

89'

M. Dyche← J. Sowerby

90+4'

Akil Wright

90+4'

Akil Wright

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonStockport

Overview

46%Possession54%

9Total Shots11

1Corners4

18Fouls21

Shots

9Total Shots11

3On Target2

4Off Target6

2Blocked3

6Inside Box6

3Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

313Total Passes366

154Accurate Passes212

49%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls21

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

0Offsides4