Northampton 0–1 Stevenage: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stevenage

C. Piergianni 80'

8/5/2023

League One · Round 1Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Northampton38%

×Draw26%

Stevenage36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.35

Northampton

1.40

Stevenage

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.19

creates per match

1.01

1.69

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Northampton

1.19

Stevenage

1.01

allows per match

Northampton

1.69

Stevenage

1.61

-0.08on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Northampton-0.08on par

Stevenage+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

64%

Northampton or Stevenage

74%

Draw or Stevenage

62%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

18%

Stevenage wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

75%

Northampton 2+ goals

41%

Northampton 3+ goals

17%

Stevenage 1+ goals

74%

Stevenage 2+ goals

39%

Stevenage 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

52%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.69 · 9 matches

Stevenage away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.61 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.19 + Stevenage defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.40

Stevenage attack 1.01 + Northampton defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Northampton scores more

38%

level

26%

Stevenage scores more

36%

Northampton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

L. Thompson

Stevenage · M

7.7

Match Events

4'

Carl Piergianni

17'

Akinwale Odimayo

46'

L. Appéré← A. Odimayo

62'

N. Freeman← B. Thompson

69'

Sam Hoskins

70'

J. Forster-Caskey← J. Reid

73'

A. McGowan← S. Hoskins

80'

C. Piergianni

82'

M. Dyche← J. Guthrie

82'

W. Hondermarck← M. Pinnock

85'

K. Bowie← J. Sowerby

88'

Dan Butler

89'

J. March← A. Pressley

90+13'

Finley Burns

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonStevenage

Overview

58%Possession42%

9Total Shots13

7Corners4

13Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots13

2On Target5

3Off Target6

4Blocked2

6Inside Box9

3Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

455Total Passes328

281Accurate Passes166

62%Pass Accuracy51%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3