Northampton 1–1 Stevenage: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Stevenage

L. Appéré 5'

J. Reid 72'

4/1/2023

League Two · Round 39Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Northampton49%

×Draw28%

Stevenage23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.84

Northampton

1.36

Stevenage

0.84

Northampton creates 62% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 100 away

1.48

creates per match

0.80

0.89

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Northampton

1.48

Stevenage

0.80

allows per match

Northampton

0.89

Stevenage

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

77%

Northampton or Stevenage

72%

Draw or Stevenage

51%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

23%

Stevenage wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

74%

Northampton 2+ goals

39%

Northampton 3+ goals

16%

Stevenage 1+ goals

57%

Stevenage 2+ goals

21%

Stevenage 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

68%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.36

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Northampton scores more

49%

level

28%

Stevenage scores more

23%

Northampton at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Forster-Caskey

Stevenage · M

7.5

Match Events

5'

L. Appéré

13'

Jon McCracken

19'

Dean Campbell

46'

W. Hondermarck← J. Sowerby

46'

J. Forster-Caskey← D. Campbell

46'

D. Rose← J. Reeves

58'

A. Odimayo← S. Hoskins

60'

Jon Guthrie

70'

M. Bostwick← T. Vancooten

70'

72'

75'

77'

83'

86'

90+3'

90'

90+2'

90+8'

J. Taylor← J. Roberts

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonStevenage

Overview

47%Possession53%

9Total Shots13

3Corners5

18Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots13

3On Target5

4Off Target5

2Blocked3

5Inside Box7

4Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

273Total Passes295

141Accurate Passes166

52%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls15

5Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2