Northampton 1–0 Stevenage: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stevenage

A. Williams 90+4'

1/1/2020

League Two · Round 25PTS Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Northampton49%

×Draw28%

Stevenage23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.84

Northampton

1.36

Stevenage

0.84

Northampton creates 62% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 100 away

1.48

creates per match

0.80

0.89

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Northampton

1.48

Stevenage

0.80

allows per match

Northampton

0.89

Stevenage

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

77%

Northampton or Stevenage

72%

Draw or Stevenage

51%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

23%

Stevenage wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

74%

Northampton 2+ goals

39%

Northampton 3+ goals

16%

Stevenage 1+ goals

57%

Stevenage 2+ goals

21%

Stevenage 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

68%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.36

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Northampton scores more

49%

level

28%

Stevenage scores more

23%

Northampton at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

N. Adams

Northampton · M

8.4

Match Events

28'

Michael Timlin

40'

Michael Harriman

45'

Paul Anderson

46'

A. Williams← M. Harriman

46'

C. Lines← S. Pollock

51'

Tom Soares

57'

Sam Hoskins

58'

C. Mackail-Smith← J. Cowley

65'

M. Warburton← R. Watson

74'

Elliott List

78'

Scott Wharton

81'

Ben Nugent

90'

T. Vancooten← E. List

90+6'

L. Smyth← C. Stokes

90+4'

A. Williams↳ P. Anderson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonStevenage

Overview

52%Possession48%

22Total Shots15

6Corners5

13Fouls14

Shots

22Total Shots15

8On Target3

8Off Target6

6Blocked6

16Inside Box4

6Outside Box11

Passing

52%Possession48%

318Total Passes294

182Accurate Passes145

57%Pass Accuracy49%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

13Fouls14

4Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1