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Northampton vs Shrewsbury — League Two 2018

Northampton
Northampton
Preview
15:00
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
2/20/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 32Sixfields Stadium
Big match
54%
Northampton
model favours
54%25%21%

Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Northampton54%
×Draw25%
Shrewsbury21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
1.64
Shrewsbury
0.91

Northampton creates 80% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 24 away

creates per match

Northampton
1.48
Shrewsbury
0.92

allows per match

Northampton
0.89
Shrewsbury
1.79

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par
Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
79%
Northampton or Shrewsbury
75%
Draw or Shrewsbury
46%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
29%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
81%
Northampton 2+ goals
49%
Northampton 3+ goals
23%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
60%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
23%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
72%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.79 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Shrewsbury defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.64

Shrewsbury attack 0.92 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Northampton scores more
54%
level
25%
Shrewsbury scores more
21%

Northampton at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 30% of Shrewsbury’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Northampton
Balanced
Shrewsbury
Direct / counter-attacking
48%PossessionBiggest gap42%
65%Pass accuracy58%
11.9Shots11.5
—xG0.93
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
NorthamptonShrewsbury

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

3
Northampton
1
Draws
2
Shrewsbury
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 50%
4–11–10–20–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Northampton
WDLLL
Shrewsbury
WWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northampton vs Shrewsbury — Match Preview

Northampton face Shrewsbury on February 20, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Northampton host Shrewsbury at Sixfields Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.