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Northampton vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Northampton
Northampton
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Lincoln
Lincoln
B. Johnson 90+8', 83'
T. Hopper 42'
A. Scully 2'
12/19/2020League OneLeague One · Round 19PTS Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Northampton29%
×Draw25%
Lincoln46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
1.16
Lincoln
1.53

Lincoln creates 32% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Northampton
1.19
Lincoln
1.38

allows per match

Northampton
1.69
Lincoln
1.13

finishing

Northampton-0.08on par
Lincoln+0.25scores more

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
54%
Northampton or Lincoln
75%
Draw or Lincoln
71%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
12%
Lincoln wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
69%
Northampton 2+ goals
32%
Northampton 3+ goals
11%
Lincoln 1+ goals
78%
Lincoln 2+ goals
45%
Lincoln 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
39%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.69 · 9 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.19 + Lincoln defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.16

Lincoln attack 1.38 + Northampton defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Northampton scores more
29%
level
25%
Lincoln scores more
46%

Lincoln at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
B. JohnsonLincolnLincoln · F
9.0

Match Events

2'
A. Scully↳ B. Johnson
36'
Lewis Montsma
42'
T. Hopper↳ J. Grant
46'
R. Korboa← M. Marshall
56'
Cian Bolger
69'
H. Anderson← R. Howarth
73'
Tom Hopper
73'
H. Smith← C. Missilou
77'
Anthony Scully
83'
B. Johnson↳ J. Jones
84'
R. Holmes← M. Harriman
84'
R. Gotts← A. Scully
90+8'
Z. Elbouzedi← B. Johnson
90+8'
B. Johnson↳ R. Gotts

Possession

48%Northampton

Shots

9Northampton

Pass accuracy

50%Northampton

Statistics

NorthamptonLincoln
Overview
48%Possession52%
9Total Shots17
7Corners10
15Fouls13
Shots
9Total Shots17
2On Target8
5Off Target4
2Blocked5
6Inside Box12
3Outside Box5
Passing
48%Possession52%
275Total Passes285
145Accurate Passes151
53%Pass Accuracy53%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls13
1Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

League One: Northampton 0–4 Lincoln

Lincoln beat Northampton 4-0 in League One on December 19, 2020.

Goals: A. Scully (2'), T. Hopper (42'), B. Johnson (83', 90+8').

Lincoln controlled possession (52%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at PTS Academy Stadium in Northampton, East Midlands.