Northampton 2–2 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Leyton Orient

S. Hoskins 52' (pen), 49'

S. Forde 90+6'

R. Hunt 14'

10/24/2023

League One · Round 15Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Northampton40%

×Draw25%

Leyton Orient35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.37

Northampton

1.50

Leyton Orient

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

1.19

creates per match

1.05

1.69

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Northampton

1.19

Leyton Orient

1.05

allows per match

Northampton

1.69

Leyton Orient

1.81

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Northampton-0.08on par

Leyton Orient-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

65%

Northampton or Leyton Orient

75%

Draw or Leyton Orient

60%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

20%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

78%

Northampton 2+ goals

44%

Northampton 3+ goals

19%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

75%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

40%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

54%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.69 · 9 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.81 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.19 + Leyton Orient defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.50

Leyton Orient attack 1.05 + Northampton defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Northampton scores more

40%

level

25%

Leyton Orient scores more

35%

Northampton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

S. Hoskins

Northampton · F

8.7

Match Events

10'

Daniel Happe

14'

R. Hunt↳ R. Sotiriou

19'

Brandon Cooper

49'

S. Hoskins↳ S. McWilliams

52'

S. HoskinsPenalty

58'

Kieron Bowie

64'

T. Archibald← R. Hunt

66'

J. Pigott← I. El Mizouni

73'

W. Hondermarck← A. Odimayo

73'

T. James← D. Happe

73'

S. Forde← A. Drinan

79'

A. Koiki← P. Brough

79'

H. Lintott← J. Willis

81'

Lee Burge

85'

T. Simpson← S. Hoskins

90+7'

Ed Turns

90+6'

S. Forde↳ J. Graham

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonLeyton

Overview

38%Possession62%

7Total Shots19

5Corners6

6Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots19

4On Target7

1Off Target9

2Blocked3

4Inside Box13

3Outside Box6

Passing

38%Possession62%

325Total Passes534

223Accurate Passes427

69%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1