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Northampton vs Leyton Orient — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Northampton
Northampton
FT
1 – 0
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
8/22/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3PTS Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Northampton27%
×Draw30%
Leyton Orient43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
0.85
Leyton Orient
1.17

Leyton Orient creates 38% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Northampton
0.33
Leyton Orient
2.00

allows per match

Northampton
0.33
Leyton Orient
1.38

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par
Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
57%
Northampton or Leyton Orient
70%
Draw or Leyton Orient
73%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
9%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
57%
Northampton 2+ goals
21%
Northampton 3+ goals
5%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
69%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
33%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
38%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 0.33 + Leyton Orient defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.85

Leyton Orient attack 2.00 + Northampton defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Northampton scores more
27%
level
30%
Leyton Orient scores more
43%

Leyton Orient at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Northampton vs Leyton Orient

Northampton beat Leyton Orient 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at PTS Academy Stadium in Northampton, East Midlands.