Northampton 0–1 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Leyton Orient

J. Brophy 57'

10/5/2019

League Two · Round 12PTS Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Northampton44%

×Draw27%

Leyton Orient29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.03

Northampton

1.34

Leyton Orient

1.03

Northampton creates 30% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 94 away

1.48

creates per match

1.17

0.89

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Northampton

1.48

Leyton Orient

1.17

allows per match

Northampton

0.89

Leyton Orient

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

71%

Northampton or Leyton Orient

73%

Draw or Leyton Orient

56%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

20%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

74%

Northampton 2+ goals

39%

Northampton 3+ goals

15%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

64%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

28%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

60%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.34

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Northampton scores more

44%

level

27%

Leyton Orient scores more

29%

Northampton at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

D. Brill

Leyton Orient · G

7.4

Match Events

7'

M. Ekpiteta← S. Ling

20'

Dale Gorman

40'

Joe Widdowson

57'

J. Brophy↳ M. Harrold

69'

V. Oliver← A. Williams

69'

A. McCormack← H. Smith

70'

M. Warburton← S. McWilliams

73'

Alan McCormack

78'

J. Maguire-Drew← M. Harrold

79'

Conor Wilkinson

80'

G. Marsh← D. Gorman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonLeyton

Overview

47%Possession53%

9Total Shots10

2Corners6

17Fouls18

Shots

9Total Shots10

3On Target3

4Off Target4

2Blocked3

8Inside Box7

1Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

290Total Passes334

165Accurate Passes196

57%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls18

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3