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Northampton vs Crewe — League Two 2018

Northampton
Northampton
Preview
15:00
Crewe
Crewe
3/13/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 35Sixfields Stadium
Big match
46%
Northampton
model favours
46%27%27%

Crewe score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Northampton46%
×Draw27%
Crewe27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
1.43
Crewe
1.02

Northampton creates 40% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 122 away

creates per match

Northampton
1.48
Crewe
1.16

allows per match

Northampton
0.89
Crewe
1.38

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par
Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
73%
Northampton or Crewe
73%
Draw or Crewe
54%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
23%
Crewe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
76%
Northampton 2+ goals
42%
Northampton 3+ goals
17%
Crewe 1+ goals
64%
Crewe 2+ goals
27%
Crewe 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
63%
Crewe (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.38 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Crewe defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.43

Crewe attack 1.16 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Northampton scores more
46%
level
27%
Crewe scores more
27%

Northampton at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 47% of Crewe’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Northampton
Balanced
Crewe
Balanced
48%Possession50%
65%Pass accuracyBiggest gap70%
11.9Shots11.4
—xG1.44
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
NorthamptonCrewe

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Northampton
1
Draws
2
Crewe
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 60%
1–02–20–11–24–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Northampton
WDLLL
Crewe
WDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Northampton host Crewe

March 13, 2027: Northampton take on Crewe in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Northampton host Crewe at Sixfields Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.