Northampton 0–2 Charlton: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Charlton

J. Sowerby 59' (OG)

D. Pratley 54'

10/24/2020

League One · Round 8PTS Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Northampton36%

×Draw28%

Charlton37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.20

Northampton

1.18

Charlton

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 143 away

1.11

creates per match

1.22

1.18

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Northampton

1.11

Charlton

1.22

allows per match

Northampton

1.18

Charlton

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

63%

Northampton or Charlton

72%

Draw or Charlton

64%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

15%

Charlton wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

69%

Northampton 2+ goals

33%

Northampton 3+ goals

12%

Charlton 1+ goals

70%

Charlton 2+ goals

34%

Charlton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

49%

Charlton (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.18 · 102 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.24 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.11 + Charlton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Charlton attack 1.22 + Northampton defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Northampton scores more

36%

level

28%

Charlton scores more

37%

Charlton at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

C. Gunter

Charlton · D

7.3

Match Events

11'

Luka Racic

46'

D. Pratley← D. Levitt

54'

D. Pratley↳ O. Bogle

59'

J. SowerbyOwn goal

62'

B. Ashley-Seal← N. Adams

63'

C. Chukwuemeka← R. Korboa

65'

Michael Harriman

66'

A. Shinnie← A. Doughty

70'

M. Marshall← L. Račić

77'

C. Washington← J. Williams

81'

Sam Hoskins

82'

Jake Forster-Caskey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonCharlton

Overview

43%Possession57%

9Total Shots5

8Corners6

14Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots5

1On Target2

4Off Target3

4Blocked0

4Inside Box4

5Outside Box1

Passing

43%Possession57%

223Total Passes293

127Accurate Passes186

57%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls16

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0