Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Northampton vs Barnet — League Two 2018

Northampton
Northampton
Preview
14:00
Barnet
Barnet
4/10/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 40Sixfields Stadium
Big match
46%
Northampton
model favours
46%26%28%

Barnet are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Northampton46%
×Draw26%
Barnet28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
1.48
Barnet
1.08

Northampton creates 37% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 62 away

creates per match

Northampton
1.48
Barnet
1.27

allows per match

Northampton
0.89
Barnet
1.47

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par
Barnet+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Barnet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
72%
Northampton or Barnet
74%
Draw or Barnet
54%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
23%
Barnet wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
77%
Northampton 2+ goals
43%
Northampton 3+ goals
19%
Barnet 1+ goals
66%
Barnet 2+ goals
29%
Barnet 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
63%
Barnet (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Barnet away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.47 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Barnet defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48

Barnet attack 1.27 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Northampton scores more
46%
level
26%
Barnet scores more
28%

Northampton at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of Barnet’s matches
  • Barnet score first in only 30% of matches
  • Barnet have scored in 7 games running
  • 70% of Barnet’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Northampton
Balanced
Barnet
Possession-dominant
48%PossessionBiggest gap56%
65%Pass accuracy68%
11.9Shots13.7
—xG1.77
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
NorthamptonBarnet

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

3
Northampton
0
Draws
3
Barnet
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 33%
3–00–22–00–41–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Northampton
WDLLL
Barnet
DDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northampton face Barnet (League Two)

League Two returns with Northampton hosting Barnet. Match starts April 10, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Northampton host Barnet at Sixfields Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.