North Texas 0–0 Vancouver Whitecaps II

North Texas

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vancouver Whitecaps II

3/16/2024

MLS Next Pro · Round 1Choctaw Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

North Texas57%

×Draw20%

Vancouver Whitecaps II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North TexasExpected goals in this matchVancouver Whitecaps II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.44

North Texas

2.31

Vancouver Whitecaps II

1.44

North Texas creates 60% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 48 away

2.36

creates per match

1.44

1.45

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

North Texas

2.36

Vancouver Whitecaps II

1.44

allows per match

North Texas

1.45

Vancouver Whitecaps II

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Texas+0.00on par

Vancouver Whitecaps II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Texas ↓

Vancouver Whitecaps II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

North Texas or draw

77%

North Texas or Vancouver Whitecaps II

80%

Draw or Vancouver Whitecaps II

43%

Winning margin

North Texas wins by 2+

35%

Vancouver Whitecaps II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

North Texas 1+ goals

90%

North Texas 2+ goals

67%

North Texas 3+ goals

40%

Vancouver Whitecaps II 1+ goals

76%

Vancouver Whitecaps II 2+ goals

42%

Vancouver Whitecaps II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

North Texas (draw refunded)

71%

Vancouver Whitecaps II (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Texas at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.45 · 47 matches

Vancouver Whitecaps II away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.27 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Texas attack 2.36 + Vancouver Whitecaps II defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.31

Vancouver Whitecaps II attack 1.44 + North Texas defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

North Texas scores more

57%

level

20%

Vancouver Whitecaps II scores more

23%

North Texas at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "North Texas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff