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North Texas vs The Town — MLS Next Pro 2022

North Texas
North Texas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
The Town
The Town
6/17/2023MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 18Choctaw Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

North Texas45%
×Draw22%
The Town33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Texas
1.91
The Town
1.63

North Texas creates 17% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 54 away

creates per match

North Texas
2.36
The Town
1.80

allows per match

North Texas
1.45
The Town
1.46

finishing

North Texas+0.00on par
The Town+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Texas ↓

The Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

North Texas or draw
67%
North Texas or The Town
78%
Draw or The Town
55%

Winning margin

North Texas wins by 2+
24%
The Town wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

North Texas 1+ goals
85%
North Texas 2+ goals
57%
North Texas 3+ goals
30%
The Town 1+ goals
80%
The Town 2+ goals
48%
The Town 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

North Texas (draw refunded)
57%
The Town (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Texas at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.45 · 47 matches

The Town away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.46 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Texas attack 2.36 + The Town defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.91

The Town attack 1.80 + North Texas defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

North Texas scores more
45%
level
22%
The Town scores more
33%

North Texas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "North Texas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: North Texas 0–1 The Town

The Town beat North Texas 1-0 in MLS Next Pro on June 17, 2023.

The match was played at Choctaw Stadium in Arlington, Texas.