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North Texas vs Sporting KC II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

North Texas
North Texas
FT
1 – 0
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
2/27/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

North Texas28%
×Draw27%
Sporting KC II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Texas
1.04
Sporting KC II
1.38

Sporting KC II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

North Texas
0.75
Sporting KC II
1.00

allows per match

North Texas
1.75
Sporting KC II
1.33

finishing

North Texas+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Texas ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

North Texas or draw
55%
North Texas or Sporting KC II
73%
Draw or Sporting KC II
72%

Winning margin

North Texas wins by 2+
11%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

North Texas 1+ goals
65%
North Texas 2+ goals
28%
North Texas 3+ goals
9%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
75%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
40%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

North Texas (draw refunded)
39%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Texas at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Texas attack 0.75 + Sporting KC II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Sporting KC II attack 1.00 + North Texas defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

North Texas scores more
28%
level
27%
Sporting KC II scores more
45%

Sporting KC II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sporting KC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: North Texas 1–0 Sporting KC II

North Texas beat Sporting KC II 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 27, 2020.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas.