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North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II — MLS Next Pro 2026

North Texas
North Texas
Preview
00:45
Los Angeles FC II
Los Angeles FC II
7/26/2026MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Group StageChoctaw Stadium
Big match
58%
North Texas
model favours
58%20%23%

North Texas score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
72%
over 2.5 goals
69%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

North Texas58%
×Draw20%
Los Angeles FC II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Texas
2.35
Los Angeles FC II
1.42

North Texas creates 65% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 37 away

creates per match

North Texas
2.36
Los Angeles FC II
1.38

allows per match

North Texas
1.45
Los Angeles FC II
2.35

finishing

North Texas+0.00on par
Los Angeles FC II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Texas ↓

Los Angeles FC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

North Texas or draw
77%
North Texas or Los Angeles FC II
80%
Draw or Los Angeles FC II
42%

Winning margin

North Texas wins by 2+
36%
Los Angeles FC II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

North Texas 1+ goals
90%
North Texas 2+ goals
68%
North Texas 3+ goals
41%
Los Angeles FC II 1+ goals
76%
Los Angeles FC II 2+ goals
41%
Los Angeles FC II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

North Texas (draw refunded)
72%
Los Angeles FC II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Texas at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.45 · 47 matches

Los Angeles FC II away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.35 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Texas attack 2.36 + Los Angeles FC II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.35

Los Angeles FC II attack 1.38 + North Texas defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

North Texas scores more
58%
level
20%
Los Angeles FC II scores more
23%

North Texas at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "North Texas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 73% of North Texas’s matches
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Texas
WLWDL
II
LDDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II — Match Preview

North Texas face Los Angeles FC II on July 26, 2026 in this MLS Next Pro fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

North Texas host Los Angeles FC II at Choctaw Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.