North Carolina 0–1 Indy Eleven: Result & Stats

North Carolina

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Indy Eleven

4/7/2018

USL Championship · Round 6Sahlen's Stadium at WakeMed Soccer Park (Cary, North Carolina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

North Carolina49%

×Draw24%

Indy Eleven27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North CarolinaExpected goals in this matchIndy Eleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.19

North Carolina

1.69

Indy Eleven

1.19

North Carolina creates 42% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 127 away

1.81

creates per match

1.10

1.27

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

North Carolina

1.81

Indy Eleven

1.10

allows per match

North Carolina

1.27

Indy Eleven

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Carolina+0.00on par

Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina ↓

Indy Eleven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

North Carolina or draw

73%

North Carolina or Indy Eleven

76%

Draw or Indy Eleven

51%

Winning margin

North Carolina wins by 2+

26%

Indy Eleven wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

North Carolina 1+ goals

82%

North Carolina 2+ goals

50%

North Carolina 3+ goals

24%

Indy Eleven 1+ goals

70%

Indy Eleven 2+ goals

33%

Indy Eleven 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

North Carolina (draw refunded)

65%

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.27 · 74 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.56 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina attack 1.81 + Indy Eleven defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.69

Indy Eleven attack 1.10 + North Carolina defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

North Carolina scores more

49%

level

24%

Indy Eleven scores more

27%

North Carolina at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "North Carolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff