North Carolina Courage W 1–0 Seattle Reign FC W

North Carolina Courage W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Seattle Reign FC W

5/14/2023

NWSL Women · Round 5WakeMed Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

North Carolina Courage W49%

×Draw25%

Seattle Reign FC W26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North Carolina Courage WExpected goals in this matchSeattle Reign FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.09

North Carolina Courage W

1.58

Seattle Reign FC W

1.09

North Carolina Courage W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 82 away

1.82

creates per match

1.12

1.06

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

North Carolina Courage W

1.82

Seattle Reign FC W

1.12

allows per match

North Carolina Courage W

1.06

Seattle Reign FC W

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina Courage W ↓

Seattle Reign FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

North Carolina Courage W or draw

74%

North Carolina Courage W or Seattle Reign FC W

75%

Draw or Seattle Reign FC W

51%

Winning margin

North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+

25%

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals

79%

North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals

47%

North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals

21%

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

66%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

30%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)

65%

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina Courage W at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.06 · 83 matches

Seattle Reign FC W away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.82 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.58

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.12 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

North Carolina Courage W scores more

49%

level

25%

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

26%

North Carolina Courage W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "North Carolina Courage W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff