North Carolina Courage W vs Seattle Reign FC W — NWSL Women 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 83+ matches
North Carolina Courage W49%
Seattle Reign FC W26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
North Carolina Courage W creates 47% more chances
Season form · 83 home / 83 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
North Carolina Courage W ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
North Carolina Courage W at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.06 · 83 matches
Seattle Reign FC W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.37 · 83 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
North Carolina Courage W attack 1.82 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.60
Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.13 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
North Carolina Courage W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "North Carolina Courage W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Angel City W
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Bay FC W
Boston Legacy W
Washington Spirit W
Kansas City W
San Diego Wave W
Denver Summit W
Portland Thorns WSeattle Reign FC W
Orlando Pride W
Utah Royals W
Chicago Red Stars WNorth Carolina Courage W
Houston Dash W
Racing Louisville WIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
North Carolina Courage W host Seattle Reign FC W on Saturday, 24 August 2019 at 23:00. The match is part of the NWSL Women 2026/2027 season.
North Carolina Courage W 1 – 0 Seattle Reign FC W
North Carolina Courage W beat Seattle Reign FC W 1-0 in NWSL Women on August 24, 2019.
Goals: L. Williams (82').
The match was played at Sahlen's Stadium at WakeMed Soccer Park (Cary, North Carolina).