North Carolina Courage W vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W

North Carolina Courage W

Preview

22:30

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

9/19/2026

NWSL Women · Group StageWakeMed Soccer Park

Big match

45%

North Carolina Courage W

model favours

45%26%30%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W score first in only 23% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

50%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

North Carolina Courage W45%

×Draw26%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North Carolina Courage WExpected goals in this matchNJ/NY Gotham FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.17

North Carolina Courage W

1.50

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.17

North Carolina Courage W creates 28% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 86 away

1.82

creates per match

1.27

1.06

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

North Carolina Courage W

1.82

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.27

allows per match

North Carolina Courage W

1.06

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par

NJ/NY Gotham FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina Courage W ↓

NJ/NY Gotham FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

North Carolina Courage W or draw

70%

North Carolina Courage W or NJ/NY Gotham FC W

74%

Draw or NJ/NY Gotham FC W

55%

Winning margin

North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+

22%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals

78%

North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals

44%

North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals

19%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1+ goals

69%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2+ goals

33%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)

60%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina Courage W at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.06 · 83 matches

NJ/NY Gotham FC W away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.19 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.82 + NJ/NY Gotham FC W defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.50

NJ/NY Gotham FC W attack 1.27 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

North Carolina Courage W scores more

45%

level

26%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W scores more

30%

North Carolina Courage W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "North Carolina Courage W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

NJ/NY Gotham FC W have won 3 in a row
69% of NJ/NY Gotham FC W’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Both teams score in only 31% of NJ/NY Gotham FC W’s matches
North Carolina Courage W win just 30% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)
Style contrast — North Carolina Courage W play Possession-dominant, NJ/NY Gotham FC W Defensively solid
North Carolina Courage W sit 14, NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

North Carolina Courage W

Possession-dominant

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

Defensively solid

58%Possession52%

83%Pass accuracy77%

11.4Shots11.5

1.64xGBiggest gap2.64

North Carolina Courage WNJ/NY Gotham FC W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2

North Carolina Courage W

3

Draws

5

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 40%

0–03–21–30–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

W

LLWWW

W

WWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff