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Norrby IF vs Trelleborg — Superettan 2018

Norrby IF
Norrby IF
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Trelleborg
Trelleborg
8/16/2020SuperettanSuperettan · Round 13Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Norrby IF45%
×Draw25%
Trelleborg30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norrby IF
1.55
Trelleborg
1.22

Norrby IF creates 27% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 110 away

creates per match

Norrby IF
1.38
Trelleborg
1.15

allows per match

Norrby IF
1.29
Trelleborg
1.72

finishing

Norrby IF+0.00on par
Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norrby IF ↓

Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Norrby IF or draw
70%
Norrby IF or Trelleborg
75%
Draw or Trelleborg
55%

Winning margin

Norrby IF wins by 2+
23%
Trelleborg wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Norrby IF 1+ goals
79%
Norrby IF 2+ goals
46%
Norrby IF 3+ goals
20%
Trelleborg 1+ goals
70%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
34%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Norrby IF (draw refunded)
60%
Trelleborg (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norrby IF at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 82 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norrby IF attack 1.38 + Trelleborg defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.55

Trelleborg attack 1.15 + Norrby IF defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Norrby IF scores more
45%
level
25%
Trelleborg scores more
30%

Norrby IF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Norrby IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Norrby IF 1–3 Trelleborg

Trelleborg beat Norrby IF 3-1 in Superettan on August 16, 2020.

The match was played at Borås Arena in Borås.