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Nordsjælland W vs Thy ThistedQ W — Kvindeliga 2019

Nordsjælland W
Nordsjælland W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Thy ThistedQ W
Thy ThistedQ W
8/22/2021KvindeligaKvindeliga · Round 3Right to Dream Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Nordsjælland W54%
×Draw22%
Thy ThistedQ W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nordsjælland W
2.00
Thy ThistedQ W
1.27

Nordsjælland W creates 57% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 58 away

creates per match

Nordsjælland W
1.70
Thy ThistedQ W
1.33

allows per match

Nordsjælland W
1.20
Thy ThistedQ W
2.31

finishing

Nordsjælland W+0.00on par
Thy ThistedQ W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nordsjælland W ↓

Thy ThistedQ W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Nordsjælland W or draw
76%
Nordsjælland W or Thy ThistedQ W
78%
Draw or Thy ThistedQ W
46%

Winning margin

Nordsjælland W wins by 2+
32%
Thy ThistedQ W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nordsjælland W 1+ goals
86%
Nordsjælland W 2+ goals
59%
Nordsjælland W 3+ goals
32%
Thy ThistedQ W 1+ goals
72%
Thy ThistedQ W 2+ goals
36%
Thy ThistedQ W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nordsjælland W (draw refunded)
69%
Thy ThistedQ W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nordsjælland W at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.20 · 81 matches

Thy ThistedQ W away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.31 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nordsjælland W attack 1.70 + Thy ThistedQ W defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.00

Thy ThistedQ W attack 1.33 + Nordsjælland W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nordsjælland W scores more
54%
level
22%
Thy ThistedQ W scores more
24%

Nordsjælland W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nordsjælland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kvindeliga: Nordsjælland W 1–3 Thy ThistedQ W

Thy ThistedQ W beat Nordsjælland W 3-1 in Kvindeliga on August 22, 2021.

The match was played at Right to Dream Park in Farum.