Nordsjælland W vs Midtjylland W

Nordsjælland W

Preview

12:00

Midtjylland W

9/13/2026

Kvindeliga · Round 7

44%

Nordsjælland W

model favours

44%25%31%

Nordsjælland W score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

over 2.5 goals

57%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Nordsjælland W44%

×Draw25%

Midtjylland W31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nordsjælland WExpected goals in this matchMidtjylland W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.28

Nordsjælland W

1.56

Midtjylland W

1.28

Nordsjælland W creates 22% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 14 away

1.70

creates per match

1.36

1.20

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Nordsjælland W

1.70

Midtjylland W

1.36

allows per match

Nordsjælland W

1.20

Midtjylland W

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nordsjælland W+0.00on par

Midtjylland W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nordsjælland W ↓

Midtjylland W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Nordsjælland W or draw

69%

Nordsjælland W or Midtjylland W

75%

Draw or Midtjylland W

56%

Winning margin

Nordsjælland W wins by 2+

22%

Midtjylland W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Nordsjælland W 1+ goals

79%

Nordsjælland W 2+ goals

46%

Nordsjælland W 3+ goals

21%

Midtjylland W 1+ goals

72%

Midtjylland W 2+ goals

37%

Midtjylland W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Nordsjælland W (draw refunded)

58%

Midtjylland W (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nordsjælland W at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.20 · 81 matches

Midtjylland W away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nordsjælland W attack 1.70 + Midtjylland W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.56

Midtjylland W attack 1.36 + Nordsjælland W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nordsjælland W scores more

44%

level

25%

Midtjylland W scores more

31%

Nordsjælland W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nordsjælland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Nordsjælland W win just 31% against the top half (vs 70% against the bottom)
Midtjylland W win just 29% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

W

LDDWD

W

LDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff