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Nordsjælland W vs ASA Aarhus W — Kvindeliga 2019

Nordsjælland W
Nordsjælland W
Preview
13:00
ASA Aarhus W
ASA Aarhus W
11/8/2026KvindeligaKvindeliga · Round 14
48%
ASA Aarhus W
model favours
27%25%48%

Nordsjælland W score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nordsjælland W27%
×Draw25%
ASA Aarhus W48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nordsjælland W
1.15
ASA Aarhus W
1.60

ASA Aarhus W creates 39% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 5 away

creates per match

Nordsjælland W
1.70
ASA Aarhus W
2.00

allows per match

Nordsjælland W
1.20
ASA Aarhus W
0.60

finishing

Nordsjælland W+0.00on par
ASA Aarhus W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nordsjælland W ↓

ASA Aarhus W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nordsjælland W or draw
52%
Nordsjælland W or ASA Aarhus W
75%
Draw or ASA Aarhus W
73%

Winning margin

Nordsjælland W wins by 2+
11%
ASA Aarhus W wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Nordsjælland W 1+ goals
68%
Nordsjælland W 2+ goals
32%
Nordsjælland W 3+ goals
11%
ASA Aarhus W 1+ goals
80%
ASA Aarhus W 2+ goals
47%
ASA Aarhus W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Nordsjælland W (draw refunded)
36%
ASA Aarhus W (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nordsjælland W at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.20 · 81 matches

ASA Aarhus W away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nordsjælland W attack 1.70 + ASA Aarhus W defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.15

ASA Aarhus W attack 2.00 + Nordsjælland W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nordsjælland W scores more
27%
level
25%
ASA Aarhus W scores more
48%

ASA Aarhus W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ASA Aarhus W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Nordsjælland W and ASA Aarhus W have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
LDDWD
W
WWDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nordsjælland W vs ASA Aarhus W — Match Preview

Nordsjælland W face ASA Aarhus W on November 8, 2026 in this Kvindeliga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.