Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nõmme United vs Pärnu — Esiliiga A 2026

Nõmme United
Nõmme United
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Pärnu
Pärnu
5/6/2021Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 2Sportland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Nõmme United67%
×Draw18%
Pärnu15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nõmme United
2.49
Pärnu
1.10

Nõmme United creates 126% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 43 away

creates per match

Nõmme United
2.61
Pärnu
1.12

allows per match

Nõmme United
1.09
Pärnu
2.37

finishing

Nõmme United+0.00on par
Pärnu+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nõmme United ↓

Pärnu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Nõmme United or draw
85%
Nõmme United or Pärnu
82%
Draw or Pärnu
33%

Winning margin

Nõmme United wins by 2+
45%
Pärnu wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nõmme United 1+ goals
92%
Nõmme United 2+ goals
71%
Nõmme United 3+ goals
45%
Pärnu 1+ goals
67%
Pärnu 2+ goals
30%
Pärnu 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nõmme United (draw refunded)
82%
Pärnu (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nõmme United at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

Pärnu away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.37 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nõmme United attack 2.61 + Pärnu defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.49

Pärnu attack 1.12 + Nõmme United defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Nõmme United scores more
67%
level
18%
Pärnu scores more
15%

Nõmme United at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Nõmme United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: Nõmme United 5–0 Pärnu

Nõmme United beat Pärnu 5-0 in Esiliiga A on May 6, 2021.

The match was played at Sportland Arena in Tallinn.