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Nkwazi vs Man Utd Zambia Academy — Super League 2019

Nkwazi
Nkwazi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Man Utd Zambia Academy
Man Utd Zambia Academy
11/8/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Edwin Imboela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Nkwazi35%
×Draw32%
Man Utd Zambia Academy33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nkwazi
0.97
Man Utd Zambia Academy
0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 77 away

creates per match

Nkwazi
0.85
Man Utd Zambia Academy
1.03

allows per match

Nkwazi
0.82
Man Utd Zambia Academy
1.08

finishing

Nkwazi+0.00on par
Man Utd Zambia Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nkwazi ↓

Man Utd Zambia Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Nkwazi or draw
67%
Nkwazi or Man Utd Zambia Academy
68%
Draw or Man Utd Zambia Academy
65%

Winning margin

Nkwazi wins by 2+
13%
Man Utd Zambia Academy wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nkwazi 1+ goals
62%
Nkwazi 2+ goals
25%
Nkwazi 3+ goals
7%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 1+ goals
61%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 2+ goals
24%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nkwazi (draw refunded)
52%
Man Utd Zambia Academy (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nkwazi at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.82 · 110 matches

Man Utd Zambia Academy away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.08 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nkwazi attack 0.85 + Man Utd Zambia Academy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Man Utd Zambia Academy attack 1.03 + Nkwazi defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Nkwazi scores more
35%
level
32%
Man Utd Zambia Academy scores more
33%

Nkwazi at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Nkwazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Nkwazi 2–1 Man Utd Zambia Academy

Nkwazi beat Man Utd Zambia Academy 2-1 in Super League on November 8, 2023.

The match was played at Edwin Imboela Stadium in Lusaka.