NK Varazdin 2–2 Istra 1961: Result & Stats | HNL

NK Varazdin

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Istra 1961

3/8/2024

HNL · Round 26Stadion Anđelko Herjavec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

NK Varazdin45%

×Draw27%

Istra 196128%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK VarazdinExpected goals in this matchIstra 1961

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.02

NK Varazdin

1.39

Istra 1961

1.02

NK Varazdin creates 36% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 144 away

1.09

creates per match

0.81

1.24

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

NK Varazdin

1.09

Istra 1961

0.81

allows per match

NK Varazdin

1.24

Istra 1961

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Varazdin+0.00on par

Istra 1961+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Varazdin ↓

Istra 1961 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

NK Varazdin or draw

72%

NK Varazdin or Istra 1961

73%

Draw or Istra 1961

55%

Winning margin

NK Varazdin wins by 2+

22%

Istra 1961 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

NK Varazdin 1+ goals

75%

NK Varazdin 2+ goals

40%

NK Varazdin 3+ goals

16%

Istra 1961 1+ goals

64%

Istra 1961 2+ goals

27%

Istra 1961 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

NK Varazdin (draw refunded)

62%

Istra 1961 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Varazdin at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 108 matches

Istra 1961 away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.69 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Varazdin attack 1.09 + Istra 1961 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.39

Istra 1961 attack 0.81 + NK Varazdin defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

NK Varazdin scores more

45%

level

27%

Istra 1961 scores more

28%

NK Varazdin at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "NK Varazdin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff