NK Slaven Belupo vs Paks — Friendlies Clubs 2026
Friendlies Clubs·2026- Date
- Jul 16, 2026, 3:30 PM
- Tournament
- Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
NK Slaven Belupo score first in only 10% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
NK Slaven Belupo10%Paks79%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Paks creates 182% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over88
- Under12
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes73
- No27
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
NK Slaven Belupo ↓
Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
NK Slaven Belupo at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches
Paks away — creates 5.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
NK Slaven Belupo attack 1.40 + Paks defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36
Paks attack 5.67 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.83
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 79%?"
Paks at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 79% does not mean "Paks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Both sides lean high-scoring (80% and 82% over 2.5)
- Paks score first in only 18% of matches
- Both teams score in 90% of NK Slaven Belupo’s matches
- 82% of Paks’s matches go over 2.5 goals
- 80% of NK Slaven Belupo’s matches go over 2.5 goals
- NK Slaven Belupo and Paks have never met before
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
No previous meetings found
NK Slaven Belupo host Paks on Thursday, 16 July 2026 at 15:30. The match is part of the Friendlies Clubs 2026/2027 season.
Preview: NK Slaven Belupo host Paks
July 16, 2026: NK Slaven Belupo take on Paks in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.