NK Slaven Belupo 0–2 Dinamo Zagreb: Result & Stats

NK Slaven Belupo

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Zagreb

12/4/2023

HNL · Round 17Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

NK Slaven Belupo24%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Zagreb51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK Slaven BelupoExpected goals in this matchDinamo Zagreb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.54

NK Slaven Belupo

0.97

Dinamo Zagreb

1.54

Dinamo Zagreb creates 59% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

1.14

creates per match

1.81

1.28

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

NK Slaven Belupo

1.14

Dinamo Zagreb

1.81

allows per match

NK Slaven Belupo

1.28

Dinamo Zagreb

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Slaven Belupo+0.00on par

Dinamo Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Slaven Belupo ↓

Dinamo Zagreb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

NK Slaven Belupo or draw

49%

NK Slaven Belupo or Dinamo Zagreb

74%

Draw or Dinamo Zagreb

76%

Winning margin

NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+

8%

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals

62%

NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals

25%

NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals

7%

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals

79%

Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals

45%

Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)

32%

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Slaven Belupo at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.28 · 144 matches

Dinamo Zagreb away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.81 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Slaven Belupo attack 1.14 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.97

Dinamo Zagreb attack 1.81 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

NK Slaven Belupo scores more

24%

level

26%

Dinamo Zagreb scores more

51%

Dinamo Zagreb at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff