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NK Osijek vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — HNL 2018

NK Osijek
NK Osijek
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
11/11/2023HNLHNL · Round 15Opus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

NK Osijek49%
×Draw26%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Osijek
1.50
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
0.98

NK Osijek creates 53% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

creates per match

NK Osijek
1.47
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.15

allows per match

NK Osijek
0.82
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.53

finishing

NK Osijek+0.00on par
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Osijek ↓

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

NK Osijek or draw
75%
NK Osijek or NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
74%
Draw or NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
51%

Winning margin

NK Osijek wins by 2+
25%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

NK Osijek 1+ goals
78%
NK Osijek 2+ goals
44%
NK Osijek 3+ goals
19%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1+ goals
62%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2+ goals
26%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

NK Osijek (draw refunded)
67%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Osijek at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.82 · 144 matches

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.53 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Osijek attack 1.47 + NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack 1.15 + NK Osijek defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

NK Osijek scores more
49%
level
26%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scores more
25%

NK Osijek at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "NK Osijek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HNL: NK Osijek 1–1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

NK Osijek and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb drew 1-1 in HNL on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Opus Arena in Osijek.