NK Osijek 2–0 HNK Gorica: Result & Stats | HNL

NK Osijek

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

HNK Gorica

P. Pušić 90'

M. Leš 34' (OG)

11/2/2024

HNL · Round 12Opus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

NK Osijek46%

×Draw26%

HNK Gorica28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK OsijekExpected goals in this matchHNK Gorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.10

NK Osijek

1.47

HNK Gorica

1.10

NK Osijek creates 34% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 28 away

1.31

creates per match

1.03

1.18

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

NK Osijek

1.31

HNK Gorica

1.03

allows per match

NK Osijek

1.18

HNK Gorica

1.63

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

NK Osijek-0.44scores less

HNK Gorica-0.39scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Osijek ↓

HNK Gorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

NK Osijek or draw

72%

NK Osijek or HNK Gorica

74%

Draw or HNK Gorica

54%

Winning margin

NK Osijek wins by 2+

22%

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

NK Osijek 1+ goals

77%

NK Osijek 2+ goals

43%

NK Osijek 3+ goals

18%

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

67%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

30%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

NK Osijek (draw refunded)

62%

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Osijek at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.18 · 23 matches

HNK Gorica away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.63 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Osijek attack 1.31 + HNK Gorica defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.47

HNK Gorica attack 1.03 + NK Osijek defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

NK Osijek scores more

46%

level

26%

HNK Gorica scores more

28%

NK Osijek at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "NK Osijek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Tiago Dantas

NK Osijek · M

7.9

Match Events

27'

Luka Jelenić

33'

Vedran Jugović

34'

M. LešOwn goal

40'

57'

58'

58'

61'

61'

L. Vrzić← V. Majstorović

72'

M. Gashi← Mesaque Dju

72'

D. Pavlović← L. Kapulica

75'

Š. Mikolčić← D. Bukvić

75'

F. Živković← M. Soldo

83'

Damjan Pavlović

86'

Pedro Lima← V. Jugović

86'

A. Sušak← M. Maloča

87'

Arnel Jakupović

90'

P. Pušić↳ A. Jakupovic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NKHNK

Overview

55%Possession45%

16Total Shots8

5Corners3

10Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots8

5On Target2

5Off Target4

6Blocked2

10Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

510Total Passes418

446Accurate Passes338

87%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls8

5Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1