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NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica — HNL 2018

NK Osijek
NK Osijek
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica
2/18/2024HNLHNL · Round 23Opus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

NK Osijek49%
×Draw27%
HNK Gorica25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Osijek
1.45
HNK Gorica
0.95

NK Osijek creates 53% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

creates per match

NK Osijek
1.47
HNK Gorica
1.08

allows per match

NK Osijek
0.82
HNK Gorica
1.43

finishing

NK Osijek+0.00on par
HNK Gorica+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Osijek ↓

HNK Gorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

NK Osijek or draw
75%
NK Osijek or HNK Gorica
73%
Draw or HNK Gorica
51%

Winning margin

NK Osijek wins by 2+
24%
HNK Gorica wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

NK Osijek 1+ goals
77%
NK Osijek 2+ goals
42%
NK Osijek 3+ goals
18%
HNK Gorica 1+ goals
61%
HNK Gorica 2+ goals
25%
HNK Gorica 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

NK Osijek (draw refunded)
66%
HNK Gorica (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Osijek at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.82 · 144 matches

HNK Gorica away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.43 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Osijek attack 1.47 + HNK Gorica defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.45

HNK Gorica attack 1.08 + NK Osijek defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

NK Osijek scores more
49%
level
27%
HNK Gorica scores more
25%

NK Osijek at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "NK Osijek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HNL: NK Osijek 3–0 HNK Gorica

NK Osijek beat HNK Gorica 3-0 in HNL on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Opus Arena in Osijek.