NK Osijek II 0–1 Dubrava Zagreb: Result & Stats

NK Osijek II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dubrava Zagreb

9/22/2019

First NL · Round 6Stadion Gradski vrt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

NK Osijek II47%

×Draw28%

Dubrava Zagreb25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK Osijek IIExpected goals in this matchDubrava Zagreb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.91

NK Osijek II

1.37

Dubrava Zagreb

0.91

NK Osijek II creates 51% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 106 away

1.37

creates per match

0.98

0.83

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

NK Osijek II

1.37

Dubrava Zagreb

0.98

allows per match

NK Osijek II

0.83

Dubrava Zagreb

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Osijek II+0.00on par

Dubrava Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Osijek II ↓

Dubrava Zagreb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

NK Osijek II or draw

75%

NK Osijek II or Dubrava Zagreb

72%

Draw or Dubrava Zagreb

53%

Winning margin

NK Osijek II wins by 2+

23%

Dubrava Zagreb wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

NK Osijek II 1+ goals

75%

NK Osijek II 2+ goals

40%

NK Osijek II 3+ goals

16%

Dubrava Zagreb 1+ goals

60%

Dubrava Zagreb 2+ goals

23%

Dubrava Zagreb 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

NK Osijek II (draw refunded)

66%

Dubrava Zagreb (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Osijek II at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.83 · 54 matches

Dubrava Zagreb away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.36 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Osijek II attack 1.37 + Dubrava Zagreb defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Dubrava Zagreb attack 0.98 + NK Osijek II defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

NK Osijek II scores more

47%

level

28%

Dubrava Zagreb scores more

25%

NK Osijek II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "NK Osijek II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff