NK Osijek II 1–1 Bsk Bijelo Brdo: Result & Stats

NK Osijek II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

3/16/2019

First NL · Round 16Stadion Gradski vrt (Osijek)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

NK Osijek II49%

×Draw27%

Bsk Bijelo Brdo24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK Osijek IIExpected goals in this matchBsk Bijelo Brdo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.90

NK Osijek II

1.42

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

0.90

NK Osijek II creates 58% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 122 away

1.37

creates per match

0.96

0.83

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

NK Osijek II

1.37

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

0.96

allows per match

NK Osijek II

0.83

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Osijek II+0.00on par

Bsk Bijelo Brdo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Osijek II ↓

Bsk Bijelo Brdo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

NK Osijek II or draw

76%

NK Osijek II or Bsk Bijelo Brdo

73%

Draw or Bsk Bijelo Brdo

51%

Winning margin

NK Osijek II wins by 2+

24%

Bsk Bijelo Brdo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

NK Osijek II 1+ goals

76%

NK Osijek II 2+ goals

41%

NK Osijek II 3+ goals

17%

Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1+ goals

59%

Bsk Bijelo Brdo 2+ goals

23%

Bsk Bijelo Brdo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

NK Osijek II (draw refunded)

67%

Bsk Bijelo Brdo (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Osijek II at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.83 · 54 matches

Bsk Bijelo Brdo away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Osijek II attack 1.37 + Bsk Bijelo Brdo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bsk Bijelo Brdo attack 0.96 + NK Osijek II defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

NK Osijek II scores more

49%

level

27%

Bsk Bijelo Brdo scores more

24%

NK Osijek II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "NK Osijek II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff