NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Karpaty

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Preview

15:00

Karpaty

7/17/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

39%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

model favours

39%29%31%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

63%

under 2.5 goals

43%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb39%

×Draw29%

Karpaty31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK Lokomotiva ZagrebExpected goals in this matchKarpaty

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.00

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.16

Karpaty

1.00

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb creates 16% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

1.82

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.82

Karpaty

1.00

allows per match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.00

Karpaty

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb+0.00on par

Karpaty+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb ↓

Karpaty →

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw

69%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or Karpaty

71%

Draw or Karpaty

61%

Winning margin

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb wins by 2+

17%

Karpaty wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1+ goals

69%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2+ goals

32%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3+ goals

11%

Karpaty 1+ goals

63%

Karpaty 2+ goals

26%

Karpaty 3+ goals

Draw no bet

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (draw refunded)

56%

Karpaty (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Karpaty away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack 1.82 + Karpaty defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.16

Karpaty attack 1.00 + NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scores more

39%

level

29%

Karpaty scores more

31%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "NK Lokomotiva Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Karpaty score first in only 17% of matches
Both teams score in 80% of NK Lokomotiva Zagreb’s matches
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb score first in only 30% of matches
70% of NK Lokomotiva Zagreb’s matches go over 2.5 goals
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and Karpaty have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Zagreb

WDWWW

Karpaty

WLWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff