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NK Domzale vs Celje — 1. SNL 2026

NK Domzale
NK Domzale
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Celje
Celje
2/25/20241. SNL1. SNL · Round 23Športni Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

NK Domzale30%
×Draw25%
Celje45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Domzale
1.20
Celje
1.53

Celje creates 28% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 125 away

creates per match

NK Domzale
1.30
Celje
1.67

allows per match

NK Domzale
1.39
Celje
1.10

finishing

NK Domzale+0.00on par
Celje+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Domzale ↓

Celje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

NK Domzale or draw
55%
NK Domzale or Celje
75%
Draw or Celje
70%

Winning margin

NK Domzale wins by 2+
12%
Celje wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

NK Domzale 1+ goals
70%
NK Domzale 2+ goals
34%
NK Domzale 3+ goals
12%
Celje 1+ goals
78%
Celje 2+ goals
45%
Celje 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

NK Domzale (draw refunded)
40%
Celje (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Domzale at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.39 · 118 matches

Celje away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.10 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Domzale attack 1.30 + Celje defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Celje attack 1.67 + NK Domzale defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

NK Domzale scores more
30%
level
25%
Celje scores more
45%

Celje at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Celje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. SNL: NK Domzale 2–1 Celje

NK Domzale beat Celje 2-1 in 1. SNL on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Športni Park in Domžale.