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NJS vs Futura — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

NJS
NJS
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Futura
Futura
9/24/2022Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 14Klaukkalan tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

NJS52%
×Draw22%
Futura26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NJS
1.93
Futura
1.32

NJS creates 46% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 31 away

creates per match

NJS
1.50
Futura
1.26

allows per match

NJS
1.39
Futura
2.35

finishing

NJS+0.00on par
Futura+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NJS ↓

Futura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

NJS or draw
74%
NJS or Futura
78%
Draw or Futura
48%

Winning margin

NJS wins by 2+
29%
Futura wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

NJS 1+ goals
85%
NJS 2+ goals
57%
NJS 3+ goals
30%
Futura 1+ goals
73%
Futura 2+ goals
38%
Futura 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

NJS (draw refunded)
66%
Futura (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NJS at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.39 · 64 matches

Futura away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NJS attack 1.50 + Futura defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.93

Futura attack 1.26 + NJS defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

NJS scores more
52%
level
22%
Futura scores more
26%

NJS at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "NJS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: NJS 3–2 Futura

NJS beat Futura 3-2 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Klaukkalan tekonurmi in Nurmijärvi.