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NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs Seattle Reign FC W — NWSL Women 2025

NJ/NY Gotham FC W
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Preview
16:00
Seattle Reign FC W
Seattle Reign FC W
7/18/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageSports Illustrated Stadium
Big match
46%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
model favours
46%28%26%

Seattle Reign FC W score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

NJ/NY Gotham FC W46%
×Draw28%
Seattle Reign FC W26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NJ/NY Gotham FC W
1.34
Seattle Reign FC W
0.92

NJ/NY Gotham FC W creates 46% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 31 away

creates per match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W
1.16
Seattle Reign FC W
1.13

allows per match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W
0.72
Seattle Reign FC W
1.52

finishing

NJ/NY Gotham FC W+0.00on par
Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NJ/NY Gotham FC W ↓

Seattle Reign FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

NJ/NY Gotham FC W or draw
74%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W or Seattle Reign FC W
72%
Draw or Seattle Reign FC W
54%

Winning margin

NJ/NY Gotham FC W wins by 2+
22%
Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1+ goals
74%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2+ goals
39%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W 3+ goals
15%
Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals
60%
Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals
23%
Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

NJ/NY Gotham FC W (draw refunded)
64%
Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NJ/NY Gotham FC W at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.72 · 25 matches

Seattle Reign FC W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W attack 1.16 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.34

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.13 + NJ/NY Gotham FC W defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

NJ/NY Gotham FC W scores more
46%
level
28%
Seattle Reign FC W scores more
26%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "NJ/NY Gotham FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • NJ/NY Gotham FC W score first in only 25% of matches
  • 75% of NJ/NY Gotham FC W’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 25% of NJ/NY Gotham FC W’s matches
  • Seattle Reign FC W fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.5 expected)
  • NJ/NY Gotham FC W outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Defensively solid
Seattle Reign FC W
Balanced
52%Possession47%
78%Pass accuracy77%
10.9Shots9.3
0.57xGBiggest gap1.51
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
NJ/NY Gotham FC WSeattle Reign FC W

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
3
Draws
0
Seattle Reign FC W
Avg goals: 1.6BTTS: 40%
2–00–01–12–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WWLWW
W
WLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NJ/NY Gotham FC W face Seattle Reign FC W (NWSL Women)

NWSL Women returns with NJ/NY Gotham FC W hosting Seattle Reign FC W. Match starts July 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

NJ/NY Gotham FC W host Seattle Reign FC W at Sports Illustrated Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.