NJ/NY Gotham FC W 0–2 Seattle Reign FC W

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Seattle Reign FC W

4/1/2023

NWSL Women · Round 2Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

NJ/NY Gotham FC W39%

×Draw28%

Seattle Reign FC W33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NJ/NY Gotham FC WExpected goals in this matchSeattle Reign FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.08

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.21

Seattle Reign FC W

1.08

NJ/NY Gotham FC W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 82 away

1.06

creates per match

1.12

1.04

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.06

Seattle Reign FC W

1.12

allows per match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.04

Seattle Reign FC W

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NJ/NY Gotham FC W+0.00on par

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NJ/NY Gotham FC W ↓

Seattle Reign FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

NJ/NY Gotham FC W or draw

67%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W or Seattle Reign FC W

72%

Draw or Seattle Reign FC W

61%

Winning margin

NJ/NY Gotham FC W wins by 2+

17%

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1+ goals

70%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2+ goals

34%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 3+ goals

12%

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

66%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

29%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

NJ/NY Gotham FC W (draw refunded)

54%

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NJ/NY Gotham FC W at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.04 · 83 matches

Seattle Reign FC W away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W attack 1.06 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.12 + NJ/NY Gotham FC W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

NJ/NY Gotham FC W scores more

39%

level

28%

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

33%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "NJ/NY Gotham FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff