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NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs Kansas City W — NWSL Women 2026

NJ/NY Gotham FC W
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Preview
00:00
Kansas City W
Kansas City W
8/15/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageSports Illustrated Stadium
Big match
39%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
model favours
39%28%33%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W score first in only 23% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

NJ/NY Gotham FC W39%
×Draw28%
Kansas City W33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NJ/NY Gotham FC W
1.24
Kansas City W
1.12

NJ/NY Gotham FC W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 72 away

creates per match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W
1.08
Kansas City W
1.19

allows per match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W
1.05
Kansas City W
1.40

finishing

NJ/NY Gotham FC W+0.00on par
Kansas City W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NJ/NY Gotham FC W ↓

Kansas City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

NJ/NY Gotham FC W or draw
67%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W or Kansas City W
72%
Draw or Kansas City W
61%

Winning margin

NJ/NY Gotham FC W wins by 2+
17%
Kansas City W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1+ goals
71%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2+ goals
35%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W 3+ goals
13%
Kansas City W 1+ goals
67%
Kansas City W 2+ goals
31%
Kansas City W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

NJ/NY Gotham FC W (draw refunded)
54%
Kansas City W (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NJ/NY Gotham FC W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.05 · 84 matches

Kansas City W away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W attack 1.08 + Kansas City W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.24

Kansas City W attack 1.19 + NJ/NY Gotham FC W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

NJ/NY Gotham FC W scores more
39%
level
28%
Kansas City W scores more
33%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "NJ/NY Gotham FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • NJ/NY Gotham FC W have won 3 in a row
  • NJ/NY Gotham FC W raise their game against the top half — 42% wins vs the upper half, only 41% vs the lower
  • 69% of NJ/NY Gotham FC W’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Kansas City W outscore their xG (2.3 vs 1.6 expected)
  • Both teams score in only 31% of NJ/NY Gotham FC W’s matches
  • NJ/NY Gotham FC W fall short of their xG (1.6 vs 2.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Defensively solid
Kansas City W
Defensively solid
52%Possession47%
77%Pass accuracy76%
11.5Shots13.3
2.64xGBiggest gap1.60
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
NJ/NY Gotham FC WKansas City W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
4
Draws
5
Kansas City W
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 60%
2–01–21–10–21–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WWWLW
W
DLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: NJ/NY Gotham FC W host Kansas City W

August 15, 2026: NJ/NY Gotham FC W take on Kansas City W in NWSL Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

NJ/NY Gotham FC W host Kansas City W at Sports Illustrated Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.