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NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs Chicago Red Stars W — NWSL Women 2026

NJ/NY Gotham FC W
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Preview
00:00
Chicago Red Stars W
Chicago Red Stars W
9/26/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageSports Illustrated Stadium
Big match
46%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
model favours
46%26%28%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W score first in only 23% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

NJ/NY Gotham FC W46%
×Draw26%
Chicago Red Stars W28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NJ/NY Gotham FC W
1.47
Chicago Red Stars W
1.09

NJ/NY Gotham FC W creates 35% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 84 away

creates per match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W
1.08
Chicago Red Stars W
1.13

allows per match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W
1.05
Chicago Red Stars W
1.86

finishing

NJ/NY Gotham FC W+0.00on par
Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NJ/NY Gotham FC W ↓

Chicago Red Stars W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

NJ/NY Gotham FC W or draw
72%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W or Chicago Red Stars W
74%
Draw or Chicago Red Stars W
54%

Winning margin

NJ/NY Gotham FC W wins by 2+
23%
Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1+ goals
77%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2+ goals
43%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W 3+ goals
18%
Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals
66%
Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals
30%
Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

NJ/NY Gotham FC W (draw refunded)
62%
Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NJ/NY Gotham FC W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.05 · 84 matches

Chicago Red Stars W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.86 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W attack 1.08 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.47

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.13 + NJ/NY Gotham FC W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

NJ/NY Gotham FC W scores more
46%
level
26%
Chicago Red Stars W scores more
28%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "NJ/NY Gotham FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • NJ/NY Gotham FC W have won 3 in a row
  • 69% of NJ/NY Gotham FC W’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 31% of NJ/NY Gotham FC W’s matches
  • NJ/NY Gotham FC W sit 2, Chicago Red Stars W 13 in the table
  • Chicago Red Stars W outscore their xG (1.5 vs 0.5 expected)
  • NJ/NY Gotham FC W fall short of their xG (1.6 vs 2.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Defensively solid
Chicago Red Stars W
Balanced
52%Possession46%
77%Pass accuracy75%
11.5Shots9.8
2.64xGBiggest gap0.51
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
NJ/NY Gotham FC WChicago Red Stars W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
2
Draws
3
Chicago Red Stars W
Avg goals: 2.1BTTS: 40%
2–01–10–02–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WWWLW
W
LLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: NJ/NY Gotham FC W host Chicago Red Stars W

September 26, 2026: NJ/NY Gotham FC W take on Chicago Red Stars W in NWSL Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

NJ/NY Gotham FC W host Chicago Red Stars W at Sports Illustrated Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.