Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Kostroma

Nizhny Novgorod

Preview

15:00

Spartak Kostroma

4/14/2027

First League · Round 27Sovcombank Arena

Big match

42%

Nizhny Novgorod

model favours

42%25%33%

Top-of-the-table clash — Nizhny Novgorod 2 vs Spartak Kostroma 4

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

over 2.5 goals

57%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod42%

×Draw25%

Spartak Kostroma33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nizhny NovgorodExpected goals in this matchSpartak Kostroma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.31

Nizhny Novgorod

1.52

Spartak Kostroma

1.31

Nizhny Novgorod creates 16% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 17 away

1.64

creates per match

1.53

1.09

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod

1.64

Spartak Kostroma

1.53

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod

1.09

Spartak Kostroma

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Spartak Kostroma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw

67%

Nizhny Novgorod or Spartak Kostroma

75%

Draw or Spartak Kostroma

58%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

21%

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

78%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

45%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

20%

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

73%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

38%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

56%

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.64 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.53 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

42%

level

25%

Spartak Kostroma scores more

33%

Nizhny Novgorod at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Nizhny Novgorod and Spartak Kostroma have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Novgorod

WLWW

Kostroma

WLLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff