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Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylya Sovetov — Premier League 2018

Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
4/23/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Stadion Nizhny Novgorod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod42%
×Draw25%
Krylya Sovetov33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizhny Novgorod
1.47
Krylya Sovetov
1.28

Nizhny Novgorod creates 15% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 106 away

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod
1.15
Krylya Sovetov
1.03

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod
1.53
Krylya Sovetov
1.79

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw
67%
Nizhny Novgorod or Krylya Sovetov
75%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
58%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
20%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
77%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
43%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
18%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
72%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
37%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
56%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.53 · 78 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.79 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.15 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.47

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.03 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more
42%
level
25%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
33%

Nizhny Novgorod at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Nizhny Novgorod 2–1 Krylya Sovetov

Nizhny Novgorod beat Krylya Sovetov 2-1 in Premier League on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod in Nizhniy Novgorod.