Niort 0–0 Arles: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Niort

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Arles

9/14/2012

Ligue 2 · Round 7Stade René Gaillard (Niort)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Niort44%

×Draw28%

Arles28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiortExpected goals in this matchArles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.97

Niort

1.29

Arles

0.97

Niort creates 33% more chances

Season form · 193 home / 76 away

1.16

creates per match

0.78

1.17

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Niort

1.16

Arles

0.78

allows per match

Niort

1.17

Arles

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niort+0.00on par

Arles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Arles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Niort or draw

72%

Niort or Arles

72%

Draw or Arles

56%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+

20%

Arles wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals

72%

Niort 2+ goals

37%

Niort 3+ goals

14%

Arles 1+ goals

62%

Arles 2+ goals

25%

Arles 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)

61%

Arles (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 193 matches

Arles away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.16 + Arles defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Arles attack 0.78 + Niort defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Niort scores more

44%

level

28%

Arles scores more

28%

Niort at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

J. Letzelter← T. Lahaye

68'

M. Dalé← D. Suarez

68'

B. Sangaré← L. Douniama

77'

M. Durak← J. Roye

79'

W. Aho Abou← T. Savanier

Niort

Arles

1

5

2

13

6

24

4

20

18

▼

Suarez

10

▼

Douniama

25

▼

Savanier

1

Delecroix

23

Konaté

22

▼

24

5

4

8

15

11

29

19

▼

Roye

48'▲J. Letzelter←▼T. Lahaye

77'▲M. Durak←▼J. Roye

Niort substitutes

2Letzelter12Durak7Ricaud9Gonzalez27Bong

68'▲M. Dalé←▼D. Suarez

68'▲B. Sangaré←▼L. Douniama

79'▲W. Aho Abou←▼T. Savanier

Arles substitutes

12Dalé17Sangaré29Abou22Germany30Yattara

Match Recap: Niort vs Arles

Niort and Arles drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on September 14, 2012.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard (Niort).

Niort vs Arles — Ligue 2 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Niort vs Arles